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| Senator Tim Kaine won't run. Too bad. |
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My favorite candidate for president in 2020 won't run, and even if he did run, he would lose in the primaries. That person is Virginia Senator Tim Kaine. I believe Kaine is absolutely the most qualified candidate to become president in January 2021. He's been a city councilman, a mayor, a governor, and a senator in a swing state. That means he's had both executive and legislative experience, and he knows all levels of government. He's been a missionary. He graduated from Harvard Law School. Most importantly, he's an honest, decent, intelligent man who speaks the truth and shares my political values. (His ideas about health care and foreign wars, for example, make more realistic sense to me than anyone else's.) Kaine is, in other words, the anti-Trump.
But Kaine is tainted by the Dems' loss of the 2016 election, when he was, of course, the vice-presidential candidate with Hillary Clinton. He also was unimpressive in the v-p debate in 2016, when he tried (against his natural inclination) to be aggressive, and his normally gentle way of speaking can be easily mistaken as wimpy.
So Kaine won't run. At this moment (March 19, 2019), it appears there will be at least 15 people who WILL run in the Democratic Presidential primaries in 2020. No one, at this stage, can predict who will win the nomination, but we can be allowed to have our preferences.
I judge candidates by three criteria:
1) Can they beat Trump?
2) Will they govern competently and decently?
3) Do I respect their political positions?
Given that, here are the likely Democratic candidates in order of my preference as of this moment, with a brief comment about each:
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| Governor John Hickenlooper |
1) Former Colorado Governor John Hickenlooper: A smart liberal scientist (geology) with a sense of humor about himself. Would be the most refreshing opposite of narcissistic, science-averse Trump. Significant executive experience (mayor, governor) in a purple non-coastal state. Successful self-made businessman (beer!). Passed strong gun controls in a Western state. Huge approval ratings in his state. Question: Can a self-described "nerd" appeal to the average blue-collar worker?
2) California Senator Kamala Harris: Supersmart, super-articulate, good-humored, liberal but, as a former prosecutor, with enough tough-on-crime credentials to appeal to some who demand that. Multi-ethnic background. Question: Can a woman of color from California who is half-Hindu in her religious practice win votes in white, Christian Middle America?
3) Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar: Smart, down-to-earth moderate/liberal with proven appeal to rural and working people. Big plus that she comes from Middle America. Handled herself beautifully in standing up to SCOTUS nominee Brett Kavanaugh. Question: Is she left-wing enough to excite hardcore liberals, and will her reputation as being hard on her staff help or hurt her?
4) Former Vice-President Joe Biden: All the experience you could ask for, of course. Proven ability to speak for and to the average working person. Popular in the key swing state of Pennsylvania. Question: At the age of 78 when he would take office, is he simply too old to handle the job and too old-school too excite younger liberal voters?
5) Washington State Governor Jay Inslee: Strong legislative and executive experience. His lifelong emphasis on climate change is exactly right for the nation and the world right now. Question: Can a not-particularly-inspiring speaker from the Left Coast win working-class votes in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Ohio?
6) New York Senator Kirsten Gillibrand: At first seemed too blatantly ambitious, but her outstanding performance at an MSNBC town hall on March 18 (clear-spoken, empathetic) made her more appealing. Absolutely unflinching in her contempt for Trump. Exceptionally articulate at explaining her positions. Strongly liberal. Physically attractive (yes, that matters to many voters, if only subconsciously). Question: Will liberal Dems forgive her for so quickly condemning Al Franken?
7) Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren: Brilliant. Passionate. The best economic ideas out there to fight economic inequality. Forever to be congratulated for coming up with the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. Question: Will Middle American working-class voters recognize that a woman who embodies Northeastern intellectual elitism has ideas that are designed to benefit them?
8) Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders: A lovable grouch with all the right ideas to combat the big-money interests and economic inequality. Super-loyal followers. Can get the attention of the Middle American working class despite being from the Northeast. Question: Isn't 79 just a bit too old for a newly-elected president?
9) Colorado Senator Michael Bennet: Not yet in the race, but just watch his takedown of Ted Cruz and Trump on January 24, 2019, in his speech on the Senate floor. It went viral, for good reason. Another solid moderate/liberal from a Western state. Question: Michael who?
10) New Jersey Senator Corey Booker: Smart. Energetic. As mayor of Newark, worked hard to improve public housing and the lives of the average citizen in other ways. Strong social liberal. Question: Is he too blatantly ambitious and can he overcome a reputation for cozying up to the drug companies and Wall Street?
11) Mayor of South Bend, Indiana, Pete Buttigieg: Sharp. Witty. Charming. A popular, effective mayor in Middle America. Unlike the other major candidates, he has served in the military. Made a big national splash with liberals when, at a televised town hall, he called Vice-President Pence "a cheerleader for the porn-star presidency." Question: Is the country ready for a gay mayor to be president?
12) Julian Castro, former mayor of San Antonio and former Secretary of Housing and Urban Development: Smart.
Popular in his part of red-state Texas. Familiar with the ways of Washington, D.C.
Appealing to the growing Hispanic electorate. Question: Is he
experienced enough, and will his Hispanic heritage hurt him among the
white working class?
13) Former U.S. Representative Beto O'Rourke: Good-natured and natural on the stump. Articulate, energetic, and good-looking. Almost beat Ted Cruz in red-state Texas. Question: Shouldn't he wait another few years and get some useful experience before he runs?
14) Former U.S. Representative (Maryland) John Delaney: Was the first to enter the race for the presidency. Question: Why?
15) U.S. Representative (Hawaii) Tulsi Gabbard: The only other military veteran besides Buttigieg. Interesting background as a Hindu Samoan. Young, attractive, articulate. Question: Can she overcome her past opposition to gay marriage and her 21% voting record in favor of Trump legislation?
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Businessman Andrew Yang and writer Marianne Williamson are also officially running, but they are basically ghosts. Others who have been encouraged to run include Massachusetts Representative Seth Moulton (former Marine), Stacy Abrams (almost won Georgia governorship last year), Ohio Representative Tim Ryan, California Representative Eric Swalwell, and former Virginia Governor Terry McAuliffe. I don't see any of them standing a chance.
My preference remains Tim Kaine, with Hickenlooper, Harris, Klobuchar, and Biden next in order of preference.
