Romney’s Vice-Presidential Options: Who gives him the best shot at winning?

The question is: Who will be Romney's vice-presidential pick?

Now that it’s assured (as if it weren’t a long time ago) that Mitt Romney will be the Republican presidential nominee, the fun comes in considering whom he might make his running mate. Here’s my list, with the odds of each candidate’s being Romney’s choice, and, afterward, their strengths and weaknesses as vice-presidential candidates.

At the end of this post, I will name the Republicans I think would do the most damage to Obama’s chances. Here's the overall list:

Name	Current Job	Odds
Marco Rubio	Florida senator	3-1
Rob Portman	Ohio senator	5-1
Tim Pawlenty	Fmr. governor of Minnesota	8-1
Chris Christie	Governor of New Jersey	10-1
Mitch Daniels	Governor of Indiana	10-1
Bob McDonnell	Governor of Virginia	10-1
John Thune	South Dakota senator	15-1
Bobby Jindal	Governor of Louisiana	20-1
Nikki Haley	Governor of South Carolina	20-1
Brian Sandoval	Governor of Nevada	20-1
Paul Ryan	U.S. representative, Wisconsin	20-1
Susana Martinez	Governor of New Mexico	40-1
Rick Santorum	Fmr. U.S. senator, Pennsylvania	50-1
Condoleezza Rice	Fmr. U.S. secretary of state	50-1
Jeb Bush	Fmr. governor of Florida	50-1

Other possibles who have been mentioned in media speculation, but that I’d put at worse than 50-1 odds: Haley Barbour, Newt Gingrich, Michele Bachmann, Olympia Snowe, Rand Paul, and Gen. David Petraeus. Of course, there is probably a Sarah Palin or Dan Quayle out there that no one, including me or Romney, is considering at this point.

Anyway, here’s my take on the most frequently mentioned suspects as Romney’s running mate.

Marco Rubio

Strengths: Rubio is smart, articulate, good-looking, young, and Hispanic. The last two characteristics offer a good contrast with Romney, who’s old and white-bread. Rubio’s parents emigrated from Cuba, so he somewhat neutralizes those who feel the Republicans are too anti-immigrant. He’s a darling of the Tea Party and will energize the far right of the Republican electorate and the anti-abortion crowd. He has decent foreign-policy credentials, being on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, thereby filling a gap in Romney’s resume. He could bring in Florida—the prize among swing states. He’s a strong family man, which, along with his sex appeal, may attract women voters.

Weaknesses: He’s probably too right-wing for moderate independents. He’s light on national experience, having been in the Senate for only a year (previously was in the Florida House). He used to lie about his parents fleeing Castro; they in fact left Cuba before Castro came to power. Once a Mormon (!), he’s now a Catholic, with strict old-Catholic views on contraception and abortion, and has proposed legislation to restrict women’s access to insurance for contraception, so he probably won’t win over many women (but see: his good looks and healthy marriage). The biggest danger for Romney: Rubio could outshine him on the campaign trail, making Romney seem even duller, older, and less authentic than he already seems.

Rob Portman

Strengths: He’s been a huge vote-getter in Ohio, the most important swing state after Florida. He’s been a U.S. representative and a U.S. senator, and he’s served in the White House under both Bushes. As a former U.S. Trade Representative and Director of the Office of Management and Budget, he has strong economic credentials and a little foreign experience. He has voiced support for Obama’s auto bailout; this could help Romney, who made the mistake of criticizing the bailout in two states that benefited from it: Ohio and Michigan. He helped Romney tremendously in his close win over Santorum in the Ohio primary, so Romney knows him well and owes him. He’s a business-oriented numbers guy, perfect if the economy remains the big issue. On social issues like guns, abortion, stem cells, and gay rights, he’s voted the straight Tea Party line, so he could attract the Republican base. He understands Congress and could be a good Congressional liaison from a Romney White House. He’s poised but not flamboyant when speechifying—could make Romney look good without upstaging him.

Weaknesses: Rob who? He has almost no name recognition outside the inside of the Republican Party. His pro-gun, anti-Planned Parenthood, anti-gay, Tea Party-friendly voting record could alienate women and minorities. He’s untested on the national scene. His support for the Bush tax cuts for the super-rich while in the Bush White House could hurt him in the general election. As George W. Bush’s OMB director, he could be accused of contributing to the nation’s deficit. He brings little to the table that Romney himself doesn’t already bring. He’s bland.

Tim Pawlenty

Strengths: He’s an intelligent, budget-cutting moderate cut along the lines of Romney himself. He abandoned his own presidential campaign and endorsed Romney early, working for him publicly, so the top of the ticket already likes and trusts him. He’s young (51), articulate, and has the requisite clean-cut looks and full head of hair. He can claim to have balanced Minnesota’s budget (but see below). He could appeal to moderate independents. He’s not given to saying foolish things in the heat of a campaign. He’s a Catholic-turned-Protestant but not a Santorum-style Bible-thumper. He could possibly bring Romney Minnesota, which now leans slightly toward Obama. He’s a low-key campaigner who will not burn brighter than Romney himself on the campaign trail. He’s a safe choice for Romney.

Weaknesses: He’s not exactly a Tea Party favorite, having raised some fees and seen property taxes rise during his tenure as governor. He’s also supported abortion in the case of rape, incest and danger to the mother’s health, so he won’t exactly energize the fundamentalist Republican no-tax, no-abortion base. He’s perceived as a boring speaker. He has no foreign-policy experience. He’s another governor, like Romney himself, so he has little sway nationally or internationally. He balanced the Minnesota budget using what some consider tricky accounting and money-shuffling. He may be too conservative for moderates (he wants to reinstate don’t-ask-don’t-tell, for example) but too moderate for conservatives (he’s open to alternative energy sources like ethanol). He’s too neutral to be interesting.

Chris Christie

Strengths: He’s the opposite of wishy-washy. He’s a lively, intelligent speaker who uses blunt language to make his points. On the campaign trail, as others speak in careful platitudes, he will come across as a rhetorical breath of fresh air. He’s a budget- and tax-cutter, which will please the Tea Partiers. The people of New Jersey like him better and better as time passes—a good sign; he could possibly bring Romney that state, though it is unlikely; he could at least force Obama not to take NJ for granted. Christie is not afraid to stand up to the far right wing of his party; for example, when he was criticized for nominating a Muslim to a judgeship, he called the criticism “crazy” and “crap.” He has stated that man-made global warming is real, and he’s in favor of his state’s strict gun control laws. These occasional acts of political independence from the right-wing of his party could attract independent voters. He’s anti-abortion but supports abortion in the cases of incest, rape, and protecting the life of the mother; this stance could attract moderate women.

Weaknesses: His bluntness could lead to gaffes on the campaign trail. His moderate anti-abortion, gun-control, and global-warming stances will turn off the fundamentalist superconservatives in the Republican base. He is another governor, like Romney, with minimal foreign policy experience and little national clout or exposure. He’s got unconventional looks—he’s big, bordering on fat. (Let’s not pretend that doesn’t count.) In joint appearances, his candor and outspokenness will make Romney seem, by contrast, boring and weasley.

Mitch Daniels

Strengths: He’s a popular vote-getter in Indiana, a state that is probably already for Romney but could waver. He was director of the Office of Management and Budget under George W. Bush and has a reputation as a budget-cutter. Like Romney, he’s a former businessman. Fiscal conservatives like his strongly anti-union policies (he decertified state unions early on). Social conservatives like his anti-abortion legislation (but see below), but he supports abortion in cases of incest, rape, and mother’s endangerment, so he shouldn’t alienate women too badly. He supported legislation to help Indiana residents get health insurance, giving Romney a “this guy knows health insurance” running-mate to critique Obamacare. He won’t outshine Romney during the campaign.

Weaknesses: He has married, divorced, and remarried—the same woman! Who knows how this will play with women and social conservatives? As OMB director, he vastly underestimated the costs of the Iraq war, and some conservatives blame him for budget deficits under Bush. He’ll doubly galvanize the unions, which despise him, to work against Romney. He has no foreign policy experience. He gave an utterly boring and nerdy response as the official Republican counter-speech following Obama’s State of the Union message. He has suggested that social conservatives call a “truce” on issues like abortion and gay marriage—a stance that offended many of them and made it seem that he wanted to hide the Republican stance on those issues from the public. He’s not photogenic or charismatic in the least. A businessman/governor, he’s more or less a Romney clone, offering little that Romney doesn’t already offer.

Bob McDonnell

Strengths: He’s a vote-getting governor of a pivotal state (Virginia) that barely went for Obama last time, then turned Republican in 2010, so he could bring 13 much-needed electoral votes to Romney. He was a lieutenant colonel in the army, filling a gap in Romney’s no-military resume. He is a down-the-line social and fiscal conservative, opposing abortion for any reason, opposing Obamacare loudly, opposing gay marriage, supporting unlimited gun ownership and unlimited drilling for oil; the Tea Partiers therefore like him a lot and will reward Romney with their enthusiasm for choosing him. He can claim to have helped Virginia have one of the lowest unemployment rates in the country. He comes with no particular personal baggage. He’s intelligent and photogenic but not so charismatic as to upstage Romney.

Weaknesses: He was the governor who initially supported the “vaginal rape” law that required women to undergo an intrusive ultrasound before having an abortion, so he will not exactly attract the moderate female vote. (He later tried to back off his support, but he still signed legislation that treats a woman seeking an abortion as if she were a child.) He’s so close to a Tea Partier that he might alienate moderates of all genders. When proclaiming “Confederate History Month” in Virginia, he failed to mention slavery (as even previous Republicans had done), thereby offending all blacks and many moderates. Untried on a larger stage, he could wilt under the national spotlight. He’s just another governor with no foreign policy experience, like Romney himself.

John Thune

Strengths: He has longtime Congressional experience, which fills in one of Romney’s weaknesses. He’s beaten powerful Democrats in the past (Tom Daschle in 2004 Senate race). He’s an evangelical Christian who votes pretty much the Tea Party line, so he is attractive to the Republican base. He’s an intelligent, attractive guy and an effective campaigner.

Weaknesses: John who? Like Portman, he has no national name recognition outside the Republican Party. Unlike Portman, he represents a state that is already safe for Romney, so he can’t bring any new electoral votes. He voted for the TARP bank bailout in 2008, and some fiscal conservatives haven’t forgiven him for that. On the other hand, his strong socially conservative views (anti-abortion, anti-gay, pro-gun) might turn off women and moderates.

Bobby Jindal

Bobby Jindal, Nikki Haley, Brian Sandoval, Susana Martinez

Okay, so it’s lazy to lump these four together, but, as young minority red-state governors, they basically have the same strengths and weaknesses.

Strengths: They’re all young, attractive, intelligent, and articulate. They’re all true-blue Tea Party conservatives who could energize the conservative base. They could appeal to minority voters—especially, in the cases of Sandoval and Martinez, Hispanic voters. (Jindal and Haley’s ancestors hailed from India.) Choosing one of them could make Romney look more open-minded and imaginative than he has seemed thus far. Jindal is the best bet of the lot, having served in Congress, having received high grades for handling hurricanes in Lousiana since Katrina, and having some expertise in health care policy. By contrast, any one of them will make Joe Biden look old and dithering in debates (assuming Biden is renominated for v-p).

Weaknesses: They all govern states that Romney is already a pretty sure-thing to win, so they bring no extra electoral votes with them. They’re each too conservative to attract moderate voters by their policy positions. They have no foreign-policy experience to speak of. They’re untested nationally. They’ll be more charismatic as candidates than Romney himself.

Paul Ryan

Strengths: As chair of the House Budget Committee and author of the GOP's public budget plans, he is the Republican Party’s fiscal face: a pure cut-entitlements, cut-taxes, cut-the-deficit conservative. He is smart, knowledgeable, and articulate about the economy and about conservative economic positions. He has powerful connections in Congress (he’s also on the Ways and Means Committee), which could help a Romney White House. He is beloved of most fiscal conservatives (but see TARP, below). He could bring Romney Wisconsin, which is currently up in the air. He votes the social-conservative line (anti-gay marriage, anti-abortion, pro-gun) consistently. The Republican base will like him for that. He looks the part.

Weaknesses: All he seems to know or care about is budget issues, and he takes an approach to those which can be made to appear heartless toward the poor and the sick and the old. (He would make massive changes in welfare, Medicare and Social Security.) He’s pure Washington insider, with no real experience outside of politics. He voted for Bush II’s TARP bank bailout, which still rankles some Tea Party types. He has no foreign policy experience.

Rick Santorum

Strengths: No surprises here. He’s the darling of the Tea Partiers and the evangelicals, who will forgive Romney everything if he chooses Santorum for veep. Choosing him will unify the Republicans and prevent any possible conservative third-party movement.

Weaknesses: His self-righteous evangelical social conservatism will not sit well with moderates or women. He slammed Romney so hard during the primaries that it will seem almost cynical for him to join Romney’s team now or for Romney to even consider him. He has very high personal disapproval ratings.

Condoleeza Rice

Strengths: She’s the only person mentioned so far in this blog with meaningful real-world foreign-policy experience, so she can fill in that big gap in Romney’s resume. She can claim that she helped keep the homeland safe during George W. Bush’s two terms in office, thereby somewhat neutralizing Obama’s success in killing bin Laden and other Al Qaida terrorists. In an April 2012 poll of Republicans and independents, she was the top choice to be Romney’s running mate. (This surprised a lot of people.) She does well in national “people we respect” polls. She comes with no particular policy baggage regarding third-rail issues like social security, abortion, gay marriage, or gun control; she can say whatever Romney needs her to say on these issues. She instantly makes Romney a credible choice for women and minorities who would otherwise dismiss any social conservative vice-presidential candidate. She’s super-smart, attractive, articulate, and, for many, charismatic.

Weaknesses: Unlike most of the others on this list, when she says she doesn’t want the job, she probably means it. The Tea Party and social conservatives in general will not trust her on tax, abortion, gun, gays, and deficit issues, so they might stay home if she’s on the ballot. She is a grown woman of primarily academic background who never married or had children—all extra reasons the evangelicals and other social conservatives will distrust her. She supported and to some extent designed the unpopular war in Iraq. She is associated with the unpopular George W. Bush. Never having run for office, she could turn out to have no stomach for the crap she will have to eat and dish out on the campaign trail.

Jeb Bush

Strengths: He’s still hugely popular in Florida; an April 2012 poll suggested that as veep nominee, he, more than Rubio, could turn this essential state from Obama to Romney. He has actually said he’d consider the v-p nomination. He’s smart and articulate. (He got the smooth-talking gene that skipped his brother.) He’s said all the right things to appeal to conservatives, but he has a reputation, deserved or not, of being a moderate, so he could appeal to the center and to the right. The Hispanic and Jewish communities in Florida like him. His wife is Mexican-American, which could attract Hispanic votes throughout the country. He has stood above the fray that was the Republican primary season and outside the partisan warfare in Washington, so he seems less mud-splattered than most other politicians.

Weaknesses: The obvious: His name is Bush. His brother was an unpopular president at the end, and his raise-taxes father was too moderate for the conservative wing that now holds the Republican Party hostage. Most voters will (wrongly) expect him to be like the rest of his family.

Whom Should the Democrats Fear?

If I’m in the Obama White House, I’m most afraid that Romney will choose Rubio, Christie, Rice, or Bush. Rubio, who is charismatic, would be a fresh voice and a fresh face who could deliver Florida. Christie would stun and impress voters with his frank way of speaking and his clear common sense on the issues (in this way, he's unlike almost anyone else who has run on a national ticket since Harry Truman). Rice would be difficult to attack without Obama’s people seeming ungallant, anti-female, and, oddly, racist. And Bush would come across as that rare politician who has managed to avoid the mud fight that has been politics in recent years. Most of all, any of the four would appeal to moderate independents.

Most of the rest of the people on this list (except for Santorum) are safe, boring choices for Romney. If he follows his usual cautious pattern, he’ll probably choose one of them.

This is my choice for president.

Full disclosure

If you’ve read this far, I now need to make an admission: I don’t like Romney, and I want Obama to win. While I don’t think Romney will be a terrible president in most ways, the prospect of a Republican president filling the next three Supreme Court vacancies unsettles me. Given the age and shaky health of liberal-moderate justices Ruth Bader Ginsburg, Anthony Kennedy, and Stephen Breyer, the next president could get three Supreme Court appointments. Three more Alitos, Scalias or Thomases would do serious damage to our country for the next 25 years and more. (See this earlier blog post for my take on why Romney would be only a slightly terrible president.)

That said, I believe it may be an advantage that I’m a Democrat vetting these Republican vice-presidential possibles. After all, who better than a Democrat to tell the Republicans which candidates I’m most afraid of?